Selhurst Park hasn’t been the place for goals this season and that looks set to continue again on Saturday, says Dave Tindall…
“Looking at Crystal Palace’s 25 games this season, 18 have seen a clean sheet. Add in the filter of home matches and 10 of their 11 Selhurst Park matches have featured at least one shutout.”
Crystal Palace v Watford
Palace pulling clear of drop zone
Three wins and a draw in their last five Premier League matches – including that amazing 3-2 success at Man City – have lifted Crystal Palace to 14th place and now six points above the relegation places.
That seems a truer assessment of how they’ve performed overall this season although averaging just a fraction over a point per game (22 from 21) is still only projecting them towards the 40 points mark and Roy Hodgson won’t want to spend the last few matches still requiring a win somewhere.
Perhaps the main problem has been their form at home. They’ve managed just two wins in 10 Premier League matches at Selhurst Park although they did grind out another victory when squeezing past Grimsby 1-0 in the FA Cup last weekend thanks to Jordan Ayew’s late winner.
That followed a 2-0 success at Wolves so victory here would give them three wins in a row for the first time this season.
Hornets reverting to mean
Watford gave themselves the perfect start to the season with four wins out of four and 12 points in the bag with September just two days old.
Since then it’s been much more hit and miss. From their last 17 Premier League starts they’ve acquired just 17 points so, like Palace, the overall picture is of a side scrapping around the 40 points mark.
At times, Watford have looked much better than that and they’ve been fairly resilient on the road, suffering just three defeats in 10 games – at Arsenal, Watford and Leicester.
Similar to Saturday’s rivals, they’re in decent nick with just one defeat in six, a 2-1 home loss to Chelsea. They go into this one on the back of a 2-0 FA Cup win at Woking.
Palace look on short side
For a side who have won just 20% of their home games in the Premier League this term, the [2.28] for Crystal Palace hardly appeals. Watford are a more appetising [3.6] while The Draw is [3.4].
Historically, Palace have the edge having won five of their last seven home league matches against Watford. That includes victories in the last two campaigns.
Taking in overall form, there’s usually very little in this fixture. The last 11 meetings have been drawn or decided by a single goal so the pair are hard to split.
I think either side could nick it to be honest although there is one standout bet in the BTTS market and that’s where we’ll head.
Stats so strong for clean sheet
Crystal Palace’s 10 home games have witnessed just 14 goals – five from the Eagles and nine from visiting sides. Going Under 2.5 goals is one thought and the [1.82] isn’t too bad.
However, we can beat it with an odds-again punt where the numbers are hugely in our favour.
Looking at Crystal Palace’s 25 games this season, 18 have seen a clean sheet. Add in the filter of home matches and 10 of their 11 Selhurst Park matches have featured at least one shutout.
And yet, for something that has occurred just over 90% of the time, we can get [2.08] by backing ‘No’ in the Both Teams To Score market.
It’s even landed in seven of Watford’s 13 away games, making odds-against worthwhile, but it’s Palace’s results where the trend is so embedded so it has to be followed.
Same Game Multi
Jordan Ayew netted in the FA Cup last weekend and has scored in three of his four games against Watford.
For the Hornets, Troy Deeney has bagged four goals in his last three Premier League games.
Both are candidates for the Same Game Multi market and if you fancy either to inspire their team to victory, it’s 5.78 for Ayew to score in a Palace win and 7.38 for Deeney to score in a Watford win.
Crystal Palace have failed to score in more home games than any other Premier League side this season (7). However, only Liverpool (7) and Chelsea (5) have kept more home clean sheets this term than the Eagles (4).
Dave Tindall’s P/L, 2018/19
Source: Betfair Premier League