Mansfield v Northampton: Clough’s side to put noses in front

Various statistics point to a home win for the Stags in their League Two playoff semi-final first leg, says Ian Lamont, who finds best value in the “to score at any time” market…

“However, even more pertinent statistics in the home team’s favour are that they have the season’s second best home record, with 15 wins, four draws and four defeats. They need to make home advantage count, because they have a relatively poor away record.”

Mansfield Town v Northampton Town
League Two Playoff First Leg
Saturday May 14, 19:45 kick-off Sky Sports

Cobblers need to pick themselves up fast

Managers are fond of saying the table doesn’t lie at the end of the season. Jon Brady might argue against that, after winning on the final day only to be deposed from automatic promotion by an astonishing scoreline elsewhere: Bristol Rovers’ 7-0 win over Scunthorpe.

The Cobblers have contacted the EFL about Scunthorpe’s line-up, which included seven teenagers but only three changes from their previous game. No complaint has been made, chairman Kelvin Thomas insisting his comments to the EFL were about the “competition going forward”.

Nonetheless, the hullabaloo of the freak result is a pointless distraction from the task now in front of Northampton. Which is to pick themselves up, having thought that any sort of win at Barrow would earn them automatic promotion. The Sixfields side have been hovering around the top three all season..

Mansfield, meanwhile, won their first two games of the season, but then didn’t take another victory until the very end of October, when they were second bottom. Suffering with Covid related absences plus injuries, they then managed to haul themselves into the promotion picture. Nigel Clough is delighted with how their “rollercoaster” season has turned out.

While the Stags’ run-in was not exceptional – just four wins, plus three draws, from their final 10 League Two games – Clough’s men are justifiably the shorter price in the match winner market at 2.265/4.

That’s just on Opta statistics: both league fixtures this season were won by the home side – Mansfield beating Northampton only in April, 1-0; they haven’t lost at home to the Cobblers since May 2004; the visitors are winless in eight at Field Mill, failing to score in half of those matches.

But is it telling that Rhys Oates, their top scorer, has only nine strikes this season? Opta say this makes the Stags the only side in the League Two play-offs not to have a player score 10 or more. There was me thinking that Northampton’s “low” score of 60 goals, compared to their three rivals having 67-77, would prove significant. Sam Hoskins (13 goals) and Mitch Pinnock (9) would love to have netted that one extra to have given them automatic promotion.

Northampton are – in some senses – a big price at 3.9 to win, with the draw at 3.412/5. The visitors won four of their final unbeaten six games, losing just twice in a 10-game run-in when they picked up 20 points.

However, even more pertinent statistics in the home team’s favour are that they have the season’s second best home record, with 15 wins, four draws and four defeats. That’s only relevant for the first leg, though, and they need to make home advantage count. Their away record is far worse than their three play-off rivals, with only seven wins on their travels compared to 10-13 by the other three.

Northampton have a decent away record – 10 wins and six draws – but Mansfield’s home goal difference (40-24) is, for me, significant.

I seem to remember completely dousing expectations in the 2019-20 play-off final that Northampton, then managed by Keith Curle, could win. Well, I have learned my lesson: it has not always seemed obvious that the Cobblers would score this season, making them a tricky team to tip, sometimes being short odds.

After new year’s day, for example, they netted just four times in 10 games, if you take out a 3-0 home win over Colchester. Yet in the final five matches of the season they busted the net 13 times. Which will turn up on Saturday, Jekyll or Hyde?

Opta tell us that no side has scored more goals from set pieces (excluding penalties) this season than Northampton. They have 26 – from free kicks and corners, it seems. Towering headers from defenders Fraser Horsfall (9) or Jon Guthrie (8) perhaps? Mansfield, however, are not far behind with 22.

It seems to me both teams will fancy their chances of scoring – especially Northampton after racing to a 4-0 half-time lead at Leyton Orient the other week. The price on both teams scoring is worth taking at 2.111/10.

More precisely than that though, I’m going for a 2-1 Mansfield win in the correct score market. I don’t think there will be a huge margin between the sides but I think both have reason or recent form to go for the win.

Who will score though? Neither side have a 20-goal man. Northampton sneak into the category of having a player with more than 10 goals thanks to Sam Hoskins (13). Midfielder Mitch Pinnock (9) is not far behind, with defenders Guthrie and Horsfall chipping in. Midfielder Paul Lewis has six, too.

Similarly, Clough’s men have a string of players who contribute regularly behind Oates’ nine. Strikers Jordan Bowery (8) and Oli Hawkins (7) are closely matched to their midfielders Stephen McLaughlin (7) and Matthew Longstaff (6).

With so many options, it is worth looking past the “first goalscorer” market and heading for “to score at any time”, on sportsbook. Pinnock attracts at 4-1, for two reasons. Not only is the midfielder in a good habit, having scored in two of Northampton’s last three games, his price is therefore more enticing than Hoskins at 5-2.

For the Stags, Longstaff’s price of 6-1 does seem long. His goal tally has come in just 16 games and he has netted three in the past six matches. Surely, had he served the whole season on loan from Newcastle, he would have struck double figures by now. Take the hint.

Source: BetFair Tips

    

The Daily Acca: A 9/1 boost to get that Friday feeling

Paul Robinson is aiming to head into the weekend on a 9/1 winner and it his Daily Acca features the Championship Play-off. Here are his selections:

Tense stuff at Kenilworth Road

Bet 1: Back Under 2.5 Goals in Luton v Huddersfield @ 1/2 – KO 19:45 BST

The Championship Play-offs are here and first legs tend to be low-scoring.

That should be no different when Luton take on Huddersfield, as during the regular campaign, both teams had more games that went Under 2.5 Goals than those that went Over.

There were two goals across the two previous meetings, with the one on this ground finishing 0-0. Expect another cautious affair.

Arbroath to make home advantage pay

Bet 2: Back Arbroath @ 31/20 – KO 19:45 BST

This is the second leg of the Scottish Championship promotion Play-off semi-final between Arbroath and Inverness, and I expect the hosts to win.

The first leg in Inverness finished 0-0, which puts Arbroath in the driving seat. During the regular season they finished six points better off than their rivals here, and they only lost once at home – which was way back in July.

The visitors have only won one of their last nine on the road, and two of their last five ended in defeat.

Benfica to come up short

Bet 3: Back Pacos Ferreira to Win or Draw @ 7/5 – KO 20:15 BST

Pacos Ferreira have a miserable record against Benfica, but there are reasons to suggest that they can avoid defeat against them tonight.

Firstly, Benfica have nothing to play for. This is the final game of the season, and no matter what happens, they will finish third.

The hosts on the other hand are at least trying to finish as high as possible, and they can improve on their position of 10th.

They will want to sign off in front of their own fans on a high, and they have lost just one of their last eight here anyway.

Source: Betfair UK English Championship

    

The Daily Acca: A 9/1 boost to get that Friday feeling

Paul Robinson is aiming to head into the weekend on a 9/1 winner and it his Daily Acca features the Championship Play-off. Here are his selections:

Tense stuff at Kenilworth Road

Bet 1: Back Under 2.5 Goals in Luton v Huddersfield @ 1/2 – KO 19:45 BST

The Championship Play-offs are here and first legs tend to be low-scoring.

That should be no different when Luton take on Huddersfield, as during the regular campaign, both teams had more games that went Under 2.5 Goals than those that went Over.

There were two goals across the two previous meetings, with the one on this ground finishing 0-0. Expect another cautious affair.

Arbroath to make home advantage pay

Bet 2: Back Arbroath @ 31/20 – KO 19:45 BST

This is the second leg of the Scottish Championship promotion Play-off semi-final between Arbroath and Inverness, and I expect the hosts to win.

The first leg in Inverness finished 0-0, which puts Arbroath in the driving seat. During the regular season they finished six points better off than their rivals here, and they only lost once at home – which was way back in July.

The visitors have only won one of their last nine on the road, and two of their last five ended in defeat.

Benfica to come up short

Bet 3: Back Pacos Ferreira to Win or Draw @ 7/5 – KO 20:15 BST

Pacos Ferreira have a miserable record against Benfica, but there are reasons to suggest that they can avoid defeat against them tonight.

Firstly, Benfica have nothing to play for. This is the final game of the season, and no matter what happens, they will finish third.

The hosts on the other hand are at least trying to finish as high as possible, and they can improve on their position of 10th.

They will want to sign off in front of their own fans on a high, and they have lost just one of their last eight here anyway.

Source: BetFair Tips

    

Premier League xG Tips: Leeds and Burnley to lose again in Gameweek 37

1280 Bernardo Silva Man City.jpg

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions as the relegation fight goes to the wire…

“An 0.99 away xGF average is concerning, even without the prospect of facing Spurs, and this looks tough for Mike Jackson’s men.”

Spurs to increase Burnley’s relegation woes

Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley
Sunday, 12:00

The relatively even xG from Burnley’s defeat to Aston Villa last weekend is a little misleading, with the Clarets converting their biggest chance late on while already 3-0 down, and the relegation battlers now have to attempt to improve a dire away record. An 0.99 away xGF average is concerning, even without the prospect of facing Spurs, and this looks tough for Mike Jackson’s men.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Villa to rebound from Liverpool setback

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Sunday, 14:00

Aston Villa had won two in a row before dropping points at home to high-flying Liverpool, and Infogol’s model backs them to return to winning ways against Palace. The visitors have averaged just 1.05 xGF per game on the road, though they recently took all three points at Southampton, and Steven Gerrard’s hosts are backed to get the job done in front of their own fans.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 11.5021/2

Out-of-form Leeds to continue sliding

Leeds United v Brighton & Hove Albion
Sunday, 14:00

Leeds have lost their last three, averaging 2.24 xGA in the process, and have lost players to injury and suspension ahead of Brighton’s visit to Elland Road. The away side have been flying of late, finding the net nine times in their last three league games and posting impressive underlying numbers to boot, and Leeds may well be left hoping their relegation rivals also drop points.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

Relegated Watford to claim a rare win

Watford v Leicester City
Sunday, 14:00

Despite being condemned to the Championship, Watford were able to claim a point against Everton in midweek. Roy Hodgson will be looking for a win in his last home game in charge, and Leicester’s 2.02 away xGA record will give his side hope. Brendan Rodgers’ visitors won last time out, but Infogol’s model is backing the Hornets to win and avoid a bottom-of-the-table finish.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 13.0012/1

City to overcome West Ham to close in on title

West Ham United v Manchester City
Sunday, 14:00

Two wins from two games will guarantee Manchester City the Premier League title, and they are in the right kind of form. West Ham will be worried after seeing Pep Guardiola’s side score 19 in their last four league games, averaging 3.43 xGF per game while doing it, and the Hammers’ impressive attacking display at Norwich won’t be enough to worry the champions-elect.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Wolves to claim first win since early April

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Norwich City
Sunday, 14:00

An average of just 0.81 xGF across their last five games have ended Wolves’ European hopes, but they can return to winning ways against a Norwich side already condemned to relegation. The Canaries have the league’s worst xGF and xGA returns away from home, picking up just nine points from 18 games, and Bruno Lage’s side can improve on the goalless draw from the reverse fixture.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Brentford to keep Everton in trouble

Everton v Brentford
Sunday, 16:30

Everton have seven points from their last three home games, but a 1.00 xGF average across those games isn’t the most convincing. This time out they welcome Brentford to Goodison Park, with Thomas Frank’s side still hopeful of a top-half finish, and Infogol’s model gives the Bees a slight edge in what could be a close-run contest.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 14.0013/1

Arsenal to hand Newcastle a third straight loss

Newcastle United v Arsenal
Monday, 20:00

Newcastle created little during their defeats to Liverpool and Manchester City, but their game against Arsenal on Monday night may provide more of a yardstick. A home average of 1.64 xGA will continue to concern Eddie Howe, even if it’s improved since the start of the season, but Infogol still expects Arsenal to complete a league double after two second half goals gave them victory in the last meeting.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Liverpool to keep up title pressure

Southampton v Liverpool
Tuesday, 19:45

Liverpool need to wait until Tuesday for their game after FA Cup final responsibilities on Saturday, and by the time they kick off they’ll know the size of their task as they aim to chase down Man City. Ralph Hasenhuttl’s hosts are winless in four with a 2.24 xGA average, so the visitors will feel confident of keeping their rivals honest.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 11.0010/1

Source: Betfair Premier League

    

Premier League xG Tips: Leeds and Burnley to lose again in Gameweek 37

1280 Bernardo Silva Man City.jpg

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions as the relegation fight goes to the wire…

“An 0.99 away xGF average is concerning, even without the prospect of facing Spurs, and this looks tough for Mike Jackson’s men.”

Spurs to increase Burnley’s relegation woes

Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley
Sunday, 12:00

The relatively even xG from Burnley’s defeat to Aston Villa last weekend is a little misleading, with the Clarets converting their biggest chance late on while already 3-0 down, and the relegation battlers now have to attempt to improve a dire away record. An 0.99 away xGF average is concerning, even without the prospect of facing Spurs, and this looks tough for Mike Jackson’s men.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Villa to rebound from Liverpool setback

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Sunday, 14:00

Aston Villa had won two in a row before dropping points at home to high-flying Liverpool, and Infogol’s model backs them to return to winning ways against Palace. The visitors have averaged just 1.05 xGF per game on the road, though they recently took all three points at Southampton, and Steven Gerrard’s hosts are backed to get the job done in front of their own fans.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 11.5021/2

Out-of-form Leeds to continue sliding

Leeds United v Brighton & Hove Albion
Sunday, 14:00

Leeds have lost their last three, averaging 2.24 xGA in the process, and have lost players to injury and suspension ahead of Brighton’s visit to Elland Road. The away side have been flying of late, finding the net nine times in their last three league games and posting impressive underlying numbers to boot, and Leeds may well be left hoping their relegation rivals also drop points.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

Relegated Watford to claim a rare win

Watford v Leicester City
Sunday, 14:00

Despite being condemned to the Championship, Watford were able to claim a point against Everton in midweek. Roy Hodgson will be looking for a win in his last home game in charge, and Leicester’s 2.02 away xGA record will give his side hope. Brendan Rodgers’ visitors won last time out, but Infogol’s model is backing the Hornets to win and avoid a bottom-of-the-table finish.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 13.0012/1

City to overcome West Ham to close in on title

West Ham United v Manchester City
Sunday, 14:00

Two wins from two games will guarantee Manchester City the Premier League title, and they are in the right kind of form. West Ham will be worried after seeing Pep Guardiola’s side score 19 in their last four league games, averaging 3.43 xGF per game while doing it, and the Hammers’ impressive attacking display at Norwich won’t be enough to worry the champions-elect.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Wolves to claim first win since early April

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Norwich City
Sunday, 14:00

An average of just 0.81 xGF across their last five games have ended Wolves’ European hopes, but they can return to winning ways against a Norwich side already condemned to relegation. The Canaries have the league’s worst xGF and xGA returns away from home, picking up just nine points from 18 games, and Bruno Lage’s side can improve on the goalless draw from the reverse fixture.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Brentford to keep Everton in trouble

Everton v Brentford
Sunday, 16:30

Everton have seven points from their last three home games, but a 1.00 xGF average across those games isn’t the most convincing. This time out they welcome Brentford to Goodison Park, with Thomas Frank’s side still hopeful of a top-half finish, and Infogol’s model gives the Bees a slight edge in what could be a close-run contest.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 14.0013/1

Arsenal to hand Newcastle a third straight loss

Newcastle United v Arsenal
Monday, 20:00

Newcastle created little during their defeats to Liverpool and Manchester City, but their game against Arsenal on Monday night may provide more of a yardstick. A home average of 1.64 xGA will continue to concern Eddie Howe, even if it’s improved since the start of the season, but Infogol still expects Arsenal to complete a league double after two second half goals gave them victory in the last meeting.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Liverpool to keep up title pressure

Southampton v Liverpool
Tuesday, 19:45

Liverpool need to wait until Tuesday for their game after FA Cup final responsibilities on Saturday, and by the time they kick off they’ll know the size of their task as they aim to chase down Man City. Ralph Hasenhuttl’s hosts are winless in four with a 2.24 xGA average, so the visitors will feel confident of keeping their rivals honest.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 11.0010/1

Source: BetFair Tips