Middlesbrough [1.62] v Brighton [6.8]; The Draw [4.2]
There are six extremely short-priced home teams to conclude the regulation season in the Championship on Saturday, but the team with by far the best home form in 2015 – Middlesbrough – are the biggest price of all those six teams. I just don’t get that at all.
I’m not saying Middlesbrough’s price of [1.62] screams value, what I am saying is that they are the best home team in the division right now, are facing a team 20th in the table that has collected just one point from the last 18 available, yet all of Brentford, Derby, Norwich, Watford, and Wolves are more fancied to win.
For the record Aitor Karanka‘s men have won 11 of their last 12 games at the Riverside Stadium, they’ve conceded just five goals in that time, and they’ve recorded victories at home against the likes of Derby, Brentford, Wolves, Norwich, and Ipswich this season.
Brighton meanwhile are in awful form. True, it can be argued that there’s nothing at stake here but Boro will want to gather some momentum ahead of the play-offs and I can see them flying out of the blocks in an attempt to put this game to bed early.
Back Middlesbrough HT/Middlesbrough FT @ [2.56] (best bet)
Brentford [1.42] v Wigan [9.0]; The Draw [5.2]
Brentford are the best placed team to take advantage should either Derby or Ipswich slip-up in their quest to secure the final play-off places, though if the Tractor Boys lose by just a single goal at Blackburn then the Bees will need to record at least a two-goal victory in this encounter.
So the only way for Mark Warburton‘s men to go about matters is to go for a comfortable win from the off, and that’s exactly what I believe they’ll achieve.
Wigan are relegated and despite having a relatively new manager in charge who will be insisting that his players go out and give a performance, there has to be some doubt as to whether the Latics will be able to lift themselves just days after learning that they’ll be playing League One football next season.
Brentford are generally good for goals at Griffin Park having scored 18 goals in their last seven matches in front of their own fans, and now with a need to hit the back of the net as regularly as possible against a team low on morale, I can easily see Warburton’s men bridge the -1 goal deficit.
Back Brentford -1 to Win @ [2.24]
Wolves [1.41] v Millwall [9.4]; The Draw [5.2]
Wolves are on exactly the same points as Brentford so their situation is almost identical to that of the Bees, except if Ipswich do lose then Kenny Jackett’s men most score a plethora of goals to go above them.
In situations like this, when you’re relying on other results going your way and knowing that you need to win by a big margin, all you can do is take care of your own business, and like Brentford, that’s what I expect Wolves to do.
This game has even more similarities with the Brentford match in that Wolves are hosting a side that had their relegation confirmed in midweek, so you have to wonder about morale in the Lions camp.
Millwall have taken just two points from the last 21 available on the road, underlining the tough task they face at Molineux which is made even tougher by Wolves’ excellent recent home form. Jackett’s men are unbeaten in seven games on home soil, scoring an impressive 20 goals in the process. At odds against, and like Brentford, they look a cracking price to overcome the -1 goal deficit.
Back Wolves -1 to Win @ [2.2]
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Championship 2014/15 Season P/L
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet