The games are coming thick and fast in the Championship now, and with another full set of midweek fixtures Mike Norman provides us with his three recommended wagers…
Bournemouth 1.9210/11 v Wolves 4.47/2; The Draw 3.9n/a
We barely got a run for our money with our ‘overpriced’ selection Blackpool on Saturday. It seems they weren’t overpriced at all and the easiest thing to do is to simply hold my hands up and admit I got that one completely wrong.
But that won’t stop me taking another punt on an outsider on Tuesday night with Wolves being the selection to beat title-chasing Bournemouth.
The reason for the recommendation is a simply one – form.
The Cherries have failed to win any of their last five Championship games and the only club they’ve defeated of note since Boxing Day is Watford – their other wins coming against Rotherham, Millwall, and Wigan, three clubs fighting relegation.
It’s definitely too early to write Eddie Howe‘s men off and say the pressure is getting to them, but their recent form certainly isn’t encouraging enought for odds-on backers on Tuesday night.
Wolves on the other hand have taken 12 points from the last 15 available, they are scoring goals for fun, and their away form has been exceptional since mid December. Kenny Jackett‘s men have played eight games on the road in that time, they’ve won five, drawn two, and their only loss came at promotion-chasing Norwich. They’ve won at Watford, Blackburn, and Cardiff in that time, all without conceding a goal.
Jacket’s men have also achieved their last four victories by scoring an impressive total of 13 goals. Confidence could hardly be higher in the camp and they’ll go to Dean Court knowing that a win will take them within two points of Howe’s men.
Back Wolves to Win @ 4.47/2 (best bet)
Rotherham 2.546/4 v Cardiff 3.185/40; The Draw 3.412/5
Rotherham did us a favour on Saturday by coming from behind to beat Millwall, and at a bigger price I could be excused for backing them once more against a side seemingly in worse form than the Lions
Cardiff have won just one of their last 10 league and cup games (Millwall had won two) but that doesn’t tell the full story at all.
Russell Slade‘s men have had some extremely tough assignments of late – away to Middlesbrough, Norwich, and a home game against league leaders Derby for example – and they performed with credit each time. They’ve actually lost only one of their last six, that coming against in-form Wolves, following four consecutive draws and an away win at Wigan.
The Bluebirds’ away form isn’t bad either, their only two losses since the Christmas period coming by single goal margins in those Boro and Norwich games.
I fancied the Millers on Saturday because they were playing a massively out-of-form club. I don’t believe that’s the case this time so perhaps we can knock holes in Steve Evans‘ side to support the recommended bet.
Rotherham conceded 13 goals in a four game winless run prior to Saturday’s victory, and I can easily see the Welsh outfit scoring a few themselves at the New York Stadium.
Back Cardiff to Win @ 3.185/40
Watford 1.75/7 v Fulham 5.24/1; The Draw 3.412/5
In what is a straightforward either/or market we’re getting a decent price here about this match ending Under 2.5 Goals and I’m willing to risk it.
And it is a risk – 2.47/5 about Unders compared to 1.664/6 for Overs tells you that – given Watford’s excellent goalscoring form of late. Fulham aren’t prolific in front of goal however, but they generally don’t concede many either and they’ll be full of confidence after a 2-0 win over title-chasing Derby at the weekend.
The Cottagers have already been involved in three goalless draws this year, two of which were on the road suggesting that Kit Symons sets them up not to concede first and foremost when they are on their travels.
True, they conceded three at Wolves on two occasions recently, but we’ve already mentioned the excellent form Kenny Jackett’s men are in.
The Hornets are one of the form teams in the division but like any other side, every now and again they’ll encounter a tough fixture. They’ve been involved in five ‘Overs’ games from their last seven, but they’ve also been involved in three 1-0s since Christmas and I can see this game having a similar scoreline if Fulham can keep in tight in the early exchanges.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.47/5
You can follow me on Twitter – @MikkyMo73
Championship 2014/15 Season P/L
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet