After another good price best bet selection landed on Saturday, Mike Norman returns with a look at some of the midweek Championship fixtures, and our man is very strong on in-form Watford winning at the DW Stadium…
Derby 2.546/4 v Middlesbrough 3.185/40; The Draw 3.45n/a
This isn’t a game that I have an opinion on from a betting perspective and the main reason for that is because I’m a Middlesbrough fan and it’s difficult for me to even consider the defeat.
But it’s undoubtedly the game of the night, and good luck to anyone who has a wager on it.
For what it’s worth Middlesbrough completely controlled the reverse fixture at the Riverside Stadium between these two and if they can take confidence from that performance then they can get get something from this crucial match.
But a few months have passed since that first meeting and Boro’s away form has dropped off somewhat. But by the same token Derby haven’t been great of late either (just two wins in their last nine matches) and they will be without injured strikers Chris Martin and Darren Bent for the visit of Boro.
I know it’s a cliche, but this game literally can go either way, it’s all about who performs best on the night for me and hopefully that will be Middlesbrough. But I won’t be having a wager on it.
Millwall 3.55n/a v Brighton 2.35/4; The Draw 3.412/5
Opposing Millwall at the Den is a license to print money at the moment; whether you’ve just been laying them to win, or you’ve been backing the away side, you would have collected in every one of the Lions’ last dozen home games and all bar one of their last 16 in front of their own fans.
With a record like that, just like this column did when Birmingham had such a poor record on home soil, you simply have to blindly oppose Ian Holloway’s men.
But even if you want to study Millwall’s home form then you’ll soon notice that they haven’t won at The Den since October, and in the last four months they’ve conceded five to Middlesbrough on their own patch, three each to Bradford, Ipswich, Huddersfield and Sheff Wed, and four to Norwich last time.
Brighton are Millwall’s opponents on Tuesday night, and while the Seagulls have struggled to live up to their pre-season billing as one of the promotion favourites they still have enough ability to win this game handsomely.
Chris Hughton‘s men have won three of their last six in the league, including a tremendous 2-0 win over Derby. On Saturday they held play-off chasing Wolves and that recent form alone, against a side who are dreadful on home soil, should see them collect three away points in midweek.
Back Brighton to Win @ 2.35/4
Wigan 3.259/4 v Watford 2.447/5; The Draw 3.45n/a
Opposing Wigan at the DW Stadium is a license to print money at the moment; whether you’ve just been laying them to win, or… Ok, I’ll stop there!
But seriously, this really is almost an exact replica of the above preview, yet incredibly, we’re getting a better price about a much superior said than Brighton, who are playing against a home side who have an even worse record than Millwall. Work that one out.
Millwall haven’t won on home soil for 12 games, The Latics haven’t won in front of their own fans since August 30th last year – that’s almost seven months and a total of 15 games. Malky Mackay‘s men have lost five on the spin at the DW Stadium, and they’ve failed to score a single goal in each of their last three.
But unlike Millwall, Wigan’s midweek opponents are not a side sitting in the bottom half of the table, they are none other than free-scoring Watford, the Championship’s most in-form side.
The Hornets have won eight of their last 11 matches, those eight wins coming thanks to 30 goals scored, and Slavisa Jokanovic‘s men have taken 10 points from the last 12 available on the road, scoring 11 goals in the process.
Against the divsion’s worst home side I rate Watford nap material on Tuesday night.
Back Watford to Win @ 2.447/5 (best bet)
Wolves 2.0811/10 v Sheff Wed 4.1n/a; The Draw 3.55/2
Although sitting eighth in the table Wolves certainly don’t need to panic just yet in their attempt to claim a play-off place.
Kenny Jackett’s men are just three points behind sixth-placed Brentford and their form remains good despite a failure to win any of their last three league matches. But there was certainly no disgrace in a narrow defeat at Bournemouth and draws with Watford (home) and Brighton (away).
Prior to this recent blip Wolves had won four of their previous five, scoring 13 goals in the process including eight in total in two home games against Rotherham and Fulham.
The league table says Sheff Wed are a better side than the ones Wolves have recently been beating but Stuart Gray‘s men are not renowned for scoring plenty of goals. Don’t read too much into The Owls’ recent away wins, they came at Blackpool and Millwall, arguably the two worst teams in the Championship.
Wolves should be good for a few goals in this fixture, and that will easily be enough to secure the three points.
Back Wolves to Win @ 2.0811/10
You can follow me on Twitter – @MikkyMo73
Championship 2014/15 Season P/L
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet