After a couple more odds-against winners in midweek Mike Norman’s Championship column remains in fine form, and more importantly, well in profit. Here are our man’s three recommended wagers from Saturday’s matches…
Huddersfield 2.26/5 v Rotherham 3.711/4; The Draw 3.55/2
We’re going for three winning bets in a row involving Rotherham following last Saturday’s win over Millwall (when we backed them) and their midweek loss to Cardiff (when we opposed them). The wager here is to get with the draw.
It’s hard to split the pair in terms of quality, and in recent weeks their games have been going to form generally.
Huddersfield for example have defeated teams like Wigan, Millwall, and Reading, all games you’d expect them to win given the form of their opponents at the time, but since the middle of January Chris Powell‘s man have lost to in-form sides like Middlesbrough, Brentford, and Wolves.
It’s a similar story with the Millers, they’ve done well when expected to, but away defeats to the likes of Blackburn, Wolves and Watford were fully expected.
Playing at the John Smith’s Stadium obviously gives The Terriers an advantage, but I’m still happy to side with the draw. Rotherham went through a spell of eight draws in 12 games before Christmas so they are more than capable of matching the teams from mid-table downwards.
Back The Draw @ 3.55/2
Millwall 5.04/1 v Norwich 1.845/6; The Draw 3.7511/4
Norwich suffered a shock home loss to Wigan in midweek, which is arguably the worst possible news for Millwall as I more than expect the Canaries to bounce back with a win here.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Norwich simply to win the game but given Millwall’s dreadful home form, and their lack of quality in general, then I’m going to take a chance on Alex Neil‘s men leading at the interval before going on to take a vital three points.
Prior to Wednesday’s home loss Norwich had won six straight league games, moving them to within touching distance of the automatic promotion places. They scored a very impressive 16 goals in that winning run, six of which came in the first 45 minutes meaning they led at the break on four occasions.
Neil’s men won away at an improving Charlton, and at quality sides like Watford and Blackburn in that golden patch of form and I see no reason why they won’t go to The Den and win comfortably.
The Lions, pardon the pun, have no bite whatsoever. Ian Holloway’s men are six points from safety at the bottom of the table and they haven’t won a single home game since October when they beat Cardiff. Their only other home league win since the opening day of the season was a 2-1 win over Blackpool way back in August, and that tells you all you need to know about how poor this side is.
Against the other clubs chasing promotion, Millwall have conceded a total of 16 goals in five home games against Wolves, Brentford, Middlesbrough, Bournemouth, and Ipswich, and in the reverse of Saturday’s fixture, they lost 6-1 at Carrow Road!
Back Norwich HT/Norwich FT @ 3.02/1
Wolves 1.75/7 v Watford 5.24/1; The Draw 3.412/5
We correctly predicted a low-scoring game when Watford hosted Fulham in midweek despite the market suggesting otherwise, and I’m not sure if there has been an over-reaction to that 1-0 scoreline here as I fully expected to see Over 2.5 Goals trade at around the 1.758/11 mark.
Fulham had just come off a 2-0 win over Derby, so confidence was high going to Vicarage Road, and Kit Symons’ men had been involved in some low-scoring away games in recent weeks. But in terms of this game, I don’t see any evidence to suggest that either side will set their stall out to defend.
For starters, we’re almost at the ‘must-win’ stage for Wolves if they have any aspirations on gaining automatic promotion. Lose here and Kenny Jackett’s men will be at least eight points – and probably more – behind where they need to be.
A defeat will also dent Wolves’ play-off hopes, so you know they are going to attack.
Add in the fact that Jackett’s men have scored eight goals in their last two home games, and that six of their last eight matches have witnessed at least three goals, then the recommended wager starts to appeal.
The Hornets meanwhile can score goals for fun and they are the form team in the Championship right now, so you just know they aren’t going to back off. Prior to midweek all of their previous five games went over the 2.5 goals mark, and their last three away matches have averaged exactly five goals per game.
To be able to back Over 2.5 Goals here at close to even money looks a very good bet.
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9620/21 (best bet)
You can follow me on Twitter – @MikkyMo73
Championship 2014/15 Season P/L
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet