Wigan [3.25] v Wolves [2.42]; The Draw [3.6]
We’re at the stage of the season now where wagering in the Match Odds market carries little value. Most of the promotion and play-off chasing teams are vastly underpriced, simply because they have to win and are facing clubs that have nothing to play for.
The problem is, although there’s no way the likes of Derby, Middlesbrough, Norwich, and Watford should be the odds-on prices that they are to win away from home this weekend, it’s also very difficult to back against them.
The exception perhaps is Wolves away to Wigan, with Kenny Jackett’s side being offered up at a very tempting [2.42] to win against a home side that prior to Saturday’s victory over Brighton, had failed to win in front of their own fans in 18 matches, a sequence spanning almost eight months.
Saturday’s win was well deserved, but it was by the narrowest of margins against a poor side who had lost three of their previous four. Wolves will offer a completely different test.
Jackett’s men must win if they are to have any chance of reaching the play-offs, and although they are without a win in three games they lost only narrowly at title-chasing Middlesbrough before drawing with fellow play-off hopefuls Ipswich recently.
Prior to that recent dip in form Wolves had won four on the bounce, scoring 11 goals in the process, and on Saturday they rate ‘best bet’ material to condemn Wigan to League One football next season.
Back Wolves to Win @ [2.42] (best bet)
Reading [3.7] v Brentford [2.14]; The Draw [3.75]
We’re moving away from the Match Odds markets for our final two games, with goals looking certain at the Madejski Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The main reason for the recommended bet is that Brentford are desperate for maximum points having slipped to seventh in the table, three points behind the play-off places. Only a win will do this weekend, and that means the Bees will most certainly go for goals.
And with pretty much a similar mentality in the last six weeks or so – though admittedly a win wasn’t as crucial as it is now – Mark Warburton‘s men have been involved in some terrific encounters.
From Brentford’s last 10 games, nine of them have finished with both teams getting on the scoresheet, six have gone over the 3.5 goals mark, and the average goals per game during that run of fixtures is exactly 3.5.
Reading haven’t been amongst the goals too much recently, but you only have to go back to the end of last month where four consecutive games saw an average of four goals per match being scored, so we know they don’t mind an open, high-scoring encounter. But it’s the make-up of this game, with the away side desperate to win, that leads me to believe we’ll see the net bulge plenty of times here.
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [2.9]
Rotherham [6.0] v Norwich [1.64]; The Draw [4.2]
This make-up of this game is pretty similar to that of the above, except that both teams will be going for the three points, and hopefully that will mean goals. I’m very surprised to see Over 2.5 Goals available to back at [2.12], put it that way.
Having lost at home to Middlesbrough last Friday night Norwich’s automatic promotion hopes are all but dead and buried – they need to win their last two games and hope that others slip up and I just can’t see that happening.
But while the Canaries are in with a chance they’ll be fully focused knowing that two wins might get them promoted but at the very least it will give them momentum going into the play-offs. I can see Alex Neil’s men winning this game, but not without a few scares.
And hopefully those scares will come in the form of goals for the Millers. A win for Steve Evans‘ men will guarantee Rotherham play Championship football next term (as long as they don’t get deducted points for fielding an ineligible players earlier in the season), and that is a huge incentive.
The Millers are sure to go for goals with the advantage of playing at home, but with Norwich’s class and need for a win also then it’s impossible to envisage this game being anything but an open affair.
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.12]
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Championship 2014/15 Season P/L
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet