Blackburn resisted Liverpool but will concede against Bolton, argues Michael Lintorn in offering three midweek Football League tips…
Yeovil v Bristol City
Match Odds: Yeovil 4.57/2, Bristol City 1.9420/21, The Draw 3.7511/4
Any opportunity to back the team top of the table at close to evens against the one right at the bottom is to be pounced upon and this League One clash is no different.
After allowing their rivals to claw a little too close before Christmas, Bristol City have established a ten-point lead owing to a run of 11 wins in 14 since Boxing Day, including four in a row most recently and three on the spin on their travels.
Yeovil, who it is easy to forget were in the Championship last term, are now three points from safety and confronting the possibility of dropping into League Two for the first time in 11 seasons. Sacking Gary Johnson hasn’t made much difference: they have won just one in six.
The most important figures of all though are these: Bristol City have claimed eight victories in ten against the bottom six (including four in five away), while Yeovil have earned two points from eight meetings with the top six, including one from four at home.
Recommended Bet: Back Bristol City to win @ 1.9420/21
Reading v Brighton
Match Odds: Reading 2.6413/8, Brighton 3.052/1, The Draw 3.39/4
Using the most basic statistics, this should be a home win: Reading have defeated four of the five sides below them to have visited the Madejski Stadium and Brighton have won on only one of six trips to other Championship clubs placed 14th or lower, firing four blanks.
However, both have hired new managers in the past three months who have altered the picture. While Steve Clarke has got Reading delivering away, they have lost three in a row without scoring as hosts. Chris Hughton’s Brighton have lost a mere two in eight on the road.
One constant in this period of upheaval has been a generous helping of under 2.5 goals. The Seagulls served up precisely that in each of the aforementioned eight away ventures – actually going under 1.5 in the latest five – and Reading have ducked under 2.5 seven times in nine in front of their fans.
Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.664/6
Blackburn v Bolton
Match Odds: Blackburn 2.01/1, Bolton 4.3100/30, The Draw 3.711/4
Bolton won’t be in awe of Blackburn’s goalless draw at Anfield having achieved the same result in the FA Cup fourth round. Another trait that these sides share is that while they are capable of shutting out Liverpool, clean sheets don’t feature too prominently in their Championship business.
Both teams have scored in 11 of Bolton’s 13 league games since Christmas and each of Blackburn’s previous four home second-tier encounters, three of which finished 2-1 (twice in their favour, once against). Neil Lennon’s Trotters won the reverse fixture by that scoreline at the Macron Stadium.
In total, Blackburn have kept just one of their last 11 Championship opponents quiet – and none in five at Ewood Park – and Bolton’s league clean-sheet record is an even less impressive one in 13, and zero in six away.
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.875/6