It’s that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:
Bet 1: Nottingham Forest (HOME) @ 1.8 (4/5)
The City Ground is the scene of our home win this evening as Nottingham Forest should get the three points they need to keep their play-off dream alive.
Forest have been rejuvenated since the arrival of Dougie Freedman at the club and he has led them to six victories from their last nine outings. It’s four straight successes in front of their own fans and they face a Rotherham side who are down towards the wrong end of the table.
Steve Evans’ men are only one place above the relegation zone, but with Wigan, Millwall and Blackpool all failing to win last night, they have a six point advantage over them. That means that The Millers aren’t quite scraping for their lives just yet, and I fully expect the superior Forest to take advantage of that.
Bet 2: Juventus (AWAY) @ 3.4 (12/5) – Live on Sky Sports 1 at 19:45 GMT
The first leg of this Champions League last 16 tie finished 2-1 to Juventus in Italy so while The Old Lady don’t need to win this evening, I think they are value to do so.
The visitors are going to win Serie A once again so they can focus all of their energy on this competition. They have an excellent away record domestically and while it isn’t as good in Europe, Massimiliano Allegri’s side clearly has the players to achieve better.
That could come in Germany as while Dortmund have improved of late to drag themselves into mid-table in the Bundesliga, make no mistake, this isn’t the same team as in previous years.
Jurgen Klopp has to send his side out to go for the win, which could leave them exposed at the back, and as their total of 31 goals scored in the league highlights, BVB don’t have the firepower to net two or three themselves very often.
Bet 3: Barcelona v Man City (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.44 (4/9) – Live on Sky Sports 5 at 19:45 GMT
Another Champions League fixture now as Barcelona take on Man City at the Nou Camp in a match that promises to contain at least three goals.
Rumours of Barcelona’s demise were clearly greatly exaggerated as they find themselves top of La Liga again and on the verge of the quarter-finals of this competition.
If it wasn’t for a missed Lionel Messi penalty at The Etihad, Barca would pretty much be through. As it is, a 2-1 lead gives Man City a squeak, but The Citizens will have to score at least twice.
That’s why we should get plenty of goals tonight as there is no point in Pellegrini adopting a negative approach. That in turn will give Luis Enrique’s players time and space, so with the likes of Messi, Neymar and Suarez on the field, it’s hard to imagine there not being many goals.
Bet 4: Fulham v Leeds (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 (8/11)
Back to the Championship now as the clash between Fulham and Leeds at Craven Cottage has all the hallmarks of being a low-scoring affair.
It’s been a disappointing campaign for both of these clubs as they would have expected to be challenging for promotion. As it stands, The Cottagers are only six points clear of the relegation zone, while United are languishing in lower mid-table.
Fulham come into this fixture having seen three of their last four outings reward under 2.5 goal backers. The goals have been more abundant in their home matches, but two of their last four in front of their own fans have still had less than three.
Leeds have even better stats as 15 of their last 18 fixtures in all competitions have gone under 2.5 goals – including eight of their last nine away from Elland Road.
Back Nottingham Forest @ 1.8 (4/5);
Back Juventus @ 3.4 (12/5);
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Barcelona v Man City @ 1.44 (4/9);
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Fulham v Leeds @ 1.72 (8/11);
The Multiple pays approximately 15.16 (14/1)
Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.
2015 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 10 pts
Returned: 22.38 pts
P/L: + 12.38 pts
(2014 P/L: + 48.57pts)
(2013 P/L: – 15.49 pts)