It’s that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections…
Bet 1: Chelsea (HOME) @ 2.15 (23/20) – Live on Sky Sports 5 at 19:45 GMT
This Champions League last 16 tie is poised nicely following the 1-1 draw in Paris three weeks ago. Chelsea took the lead that day and I expect them to do the same tonight – and then keep it.
Jose Mourinho knows how to get the job done in the big games and while some may argue that he will play for a 0-0, I wouldn’t be so sure. The Blues have plenty of class in all areas of the pitch and their record at Stamford Bridge is second to none.
PSG have been struggling this season and there are doubts about the future of Laurent Blanc. They have improved a bit since the turn of the year, but they still trail Lyon in Ligue One and I just can’t see them putting in the performance they need to avoid defeat in the capital.
Bet 2: Atletico Nacional (AWAY) @ 2.7 (17/10) – Available on Betfair Live Video at 01:15 GMT
The South American equivalent of the Champions League is the Copa Libertadores, but they are still in the group phase of the competition. Atletico Nacional travel to Ecuador’s Barcelona and with the hosts coming into this game on the back of four straight defeats, the Colombians are great value to pick up their first win in Group 7.
Juan Carlos Osorio’s side have drawn both of their matches thus far and that’s not too bad given that they’ve played the better teams in the group. This is a fantastic opportunity to move up from third and they are capable of winning outside of Colombia, as evidenced by their successes at Nacional and Newell’s Old Boys last year.
Opponents, Barcelona, are on a poor run as mentioned earlier. They have lost both Libertadores fixtures, without even scoring a goal. Libertad beat them on this ground last time and Atletico Nacional were able to hold the Paraguayan champions in Asunción three weeks ago.
Bet 3: Blackburn v Bolton (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.95 (19/20)
The Championship is the place for goals this evening as I think we will see at least three at Ewood Park.
Blackburn may have had two 0-0’s in their last three games in all competitions but both of those were away from home. In front of their own fans, five of their last half dozen would have rewarded backers of over 2.5, with the only one that didn’t, missing out by just a single goal.
Bolton have had their last three matches go under 2.5 goals, but again, if we concentrate on games under similar conditions as tonight, the stats are much more favourable. Neil Lennon’s men have had five of their last seven away from home finish with at least three goals and they have already conceded four at Rotherham, Derby and Nottingham Forest in 2015.
Bet 4: Hibernian v Livingston (Under 2.5 goals) @ 2.15 (23/20)
A lot of people will have this down as an over 2.5 goals banker as the in-form Hibs host rock bottom Livingston. I think the value is definitely in unders though as the hosts have kept four clean sheets in a row and the visitors have gone four and a half hours of football without scoring.
Obviously the danger is Alan Stubbs’ side netting three plus themselves, but it is worth noting that they’ve only achieved that in one of their last five outings. Also, while Livingston are propping up the division, they have only conceded three or more in two of their last 15 fixtures.
A 1-0 or 2-0 correct score seems like the most likely outcome and Hibs will only be bothered about the points as opposed to racking up a huge amount of goals. That’s why, at odds-against, under 2.5 represents fantastic value.
Back Chelsea @ 2.15 (23/20)
Back Atletico Nacional @ 2.7 (17/10)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Blackburn v Bolton @ 1.95 (19/20)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Hibernian v Livingston @ 2.15 (23/20)
The Multiple pays approximately 24.34 (23/1)
Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.
2015 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 9 pts
Returned: 22.38 pts
P/L: + 13.38 pts
(2014 P/L: + 48.57pts)
(2013 P/L: – 15.49 pts)