Arsenal v Burnley: Goals will be at a premium when low scorers meet

Arsenal 1.574/7 v Burnley 7.26/1; The Draw 4.47/2
Sunday 13 December, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Arteta will be under pressure if things don’t change fast

Arsenal badly need to return to winning ways when they host Burnley on Sunday.

The idea of this match being a ‘six-pointer’ has been thrown around as something of a joke, but while there really shouldn’t be any realistic fear of Arsenal being relegated, they are certainly much closer to the bottom three than is acceptable. Now 15th in the Premier League since their defeat at Tottenham last weekend, Arsenal are on a run of four games without a league win (D1 L3), losing their last two home games.

Unless things improve fast, Mikel Arteta is going to find himself under real pressure. the issues at Arsenal are too longstanding to be all Arteta’s fault, but he is stubbornly persisting with a formation and selections, that are just not working.

Thomas Partey returned from injury against Spurs and promptly picked up a fresh one. Also on the injured list are Sead Kolasinac, David Luiz, Reiss Nelson and Gabriel Martinelli, while Nicolas Pepe is suspended.

Burnley starting to pick up points

Burnley will be looking to take advantage of Arsenal’s poor form, as they attempt to climb out of the relegation zone.

The Clarets can be reasonably pleased with their points haul since the start of November. Last weekend’s 1-1 draw at home to Everton means that Burnley have only lost one of their last four Premier League games (W1 D2 L1) and that defeat came away at Manchester City.

Burnley are 18th with six points, but have a game in hand on the teams around them. They have already played six of the current top ten teams in the Premier League and now have an easier schedule over December, in which they will hope to climb the table.

The slow start by Sean Dyche’s team was mainly down to injuries and a lack of recruitment. Phillip Bardsley and Jack Cork are both out, but Dale Stephens in back in training.

Value lies with the draw

Arsenal are the 1.574/7 favourites, with the draw at 4.47/2 and Burnley at 7.26/1.

That’s far too short a price for Arsenal in their current form. In their last seven Premier League games they have only scored two goals and it’s a fairly obvious that wins are going to be rare for any side displaying such a lack of potency.

If Arsenal are to win it’s likely to only be by one goal and there could be value in backing the draw at a price as big as 4.47/2.

Generous odds for low scoring match

No team has scored less than Burnley’s five goals this season, so this looks extremely likely to be a low scoring match. Only two teams have conceded more than Burnley’s 18 goals, but when you drill into the statistics you see that their defending is improving.

There have been some heavy defeats of late such as the 5-0 thrashing at Manchester City and the 3-0 loss at home to Chelsea, but over the last seven games, Burnley have managed to keep three clean sheets. Since Ben Mee and James Tarkowski were reunited in defence, Burnley have got much better.

Under 2.5 goals looks much too big at 2.021/1. The 0-0 half-time score is another bet to consider at 3.02/1.

Source: Betfair Premier League