Arsenal v Swansea
Monday May 11, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1
Arsenal
It looks to be another year, another season of Champions League football for Arsene Wenger and Arsenal, and while certain fans will bemoan the lack of a serious title push yet again, the consistency in which Wenger delivers top-level European football to the club is worthy of praise.
Just a point at home to Swansea is all that’s needed for them to guarantee at least fourth, and the club can set about strengthening this summer and trying to successfully defend their FA Cup trophy against Aston Villa at the end of the month.
The Gunners will have to take the Swans on with just one fit recognised striker in Olivier Giroud – Danny Welbeck is out injured.
Swansea
As ever, reports of Swansea’s demise have been greatly exaggerated and Garry Monk has proven himself to be an exciting, able coach who is more than capable of taking the club on to the next stage after the Brendan Rodgers and Michael Laudrup eras.
The Swans have had another great season and perhaps the best accolade one can bestow upon them is that they now feel part of the Premier League furniture.
Wayne Routledge, Tom Carroll and Kyle Naughton all miss out through injury.
Match Odds
Arsenal are very, very short here at [1.33], especially when we consider that Swansea’s record against them is actually fairly decent – Opta tell us that the two sides have met seven times in the Premier League and shared three wins apiece.
Swansea are available to back at a huge [12.0], with the The Draw currently trading at [6.0].
I think Wenger’s men are likely to win the game – they are clearly the better side – and although the away side will be up for what is a big game, Swansea’s season is already a success and I doubt whether they can hit the performance level needed to beat Arsenal at the Emirates at this stage of the season. However, the price doesn’t tempt me at all.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The last three games between these two sides have delivered over 2.5 goals, and that outcome trades at just [1.67] and the clear favourite. Unders is [2.46].
It’s easy to imagine two sides that like to knock the ball about trading goals between them with Arsenal coming out on top, but again, as in the Match Odds market, the price doesn’t hold much interest. One possible angle here is to take this bet in-play – wait until ten minutes or so has passed without a goal and then look to back Overs at an inflated price.
Alternatively, Both Teams to Score is available at an odds-against price of [2.02] – fair greater value than an Overs bet.
To Score
Alexis Sanchez has scored five in his last five games, he got two against Hull last week and he now has 24 goals in his debut season in England. The little Chilean is a decent pick in the To Score market purely because of his obvious quality and the fact that he never stops, from first minute to last.
He should be available at around [2.5] to score at any time, and that to me rates as a good bet.
Recommended Bets
Back Alexis Sanchez to score at [2.5] or better
Luke Moore 2014-15 Premier League P/L
Staked: 67pts
Returned: 66.55pts
P/L: -.45pts
