FC Lusitans [32.0] v West Ham [1.08]; The Draw [18.5]
Statistically, West Ham should have scored at least five goals in the home leg because each of the four prior foreign sides that FC Lusitans travelled to did so, and those were Rabotnicki, Varazdin, Valletta and EB/Streymur.
However, Betting.Betfair commenter “bob” was vindicated in his more pessimistic forecasts, and the Irons’ chances of exacting a serious thrashing in their first European tie in nine years realistically vanished with the 3-0 victory that they delivered.
The Andorrans only average 2.5 goals a game against at home in continental competition compared to 5.75 away, so the [2.6] on the under-3.5-goal outcome of the Boleyn Ground clash being replicated among the mountains is rather enticing. It is [6.6] that West Ham prevail 3-0 again.
Recommended Bet: Back under 3.5 goals @ [2.6]
Aberdeen [1.29] v Shkendija [12.5]; The Draw [6.2]
Five of Aberdeen’s most recent six Europa League encounters at Pittodrie passed over 2.5 goals with the utmost of ease, with results including last summer’s 3-2 loss to Real Sociedad, a 5-1 humbling by Sigma Olomouc and a glorious 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich.
Add to those numbers the fact that the 1-1 first-leg draw stretched their wait for a clean sheet to six outings, or that Shkendija haven’t been shut out in eight outings across all competitions, and you have a compelling case for there being at least three goals.
The Macedonians have conceded twice or more in all three prior trips abroad, and the sides that had fun at their defence’s expense included Northern Ireland’s Portadown and Moldova’s Zimbru.
Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.78]
KR Reykjavik [1.88] v Cork City [4.8], The Draw [3.8]
Cork City need to net to progress following a 1-1 draw in Republic of Ireland, but having notched in all bar one of their past 14 matches, there is no reason that this should prove a complicated task.
Indeed, there are numerous factors which suggest that their hosts are worth laying, the first being their run of five fixtures without a European win in the Icelandic capital, being held by Northern Irish opposition and beaten by teams from Finland and Georgia in that sequence.
Most telling is the country-versus-country continental record. KR Reykjavik drew 2-2 on the sole previous occasion that they entertained Irish guests, Shelbourne, while Cork City triumphed 2-0 on their last visit to the city to face Valur Reykjavik. The club from the Emerald Isle qualified both times.
Recommended Bet: Lay KR Reykjavik to win @ [1.89]