Hull v Liverpool
A run of five league games without a win across March and April means that Steve Bruce’s Hull City are flirting very seriously with losing their Premier League status. A win over Crystal Palace last time out was much-needed and will give fans and players a little confidence, but Liverpool are a different proposition.
The Tigers don’t score enough goals, their defence isn’t robust enough and their home record is among the very worst in the league. In fact, only Aston Villa have fewer home points this season.
Curtis Davies and Nikica Jelavic are our injured and David Meyler is suspended.
A disappointing 0-0 with West Brom at the weekend means that Liverpool’s chance of a top four finish now looks unlikely to say the least, but if they are to keep the pressure on Manchester United and Arsenal then they absolutely need to win at Hull.
The Reds were on a superb run, but the last few weeks have been difficult – just one win in their last four means they’ve fallen off the pace and Brendan Rodgers finds himself under a little bit of pressure, especially with German coach Jurgen Klopp now available.
Lucas is out, and Daniel Sturridge now looks like he may miss the rest of the season and is unlikely to feature.
Liverpool will obviously go into this game as favourites and they currently trade at around [2.0] to get the win they so desperately need. Hull are priced way out at [4.5] and The Draw is available at [3.55].
I think if you can get anything around odds-against on an away win here then that would have to rank as a pretty good bet. Hull don’t score many goals, are poor against the better sides and Liverpool still effectively have something to play for.
In short, Hull haven’t recorded a single win against a decent team in the league this season and, given the circumstances an away win has to be the call.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals is the favourite in this market at [1.71], and Unders is available at [2.26]. Hull basically don’t score anywhere near enough goals and it’s hard to see them smashing a few past Liverpool despite the away side being occasionally generous with their defending.
Martin Skrtel is the Reds’ best defender and he is now firmly back in the heart of that defensive unit, so for that reason I think this market depends on whether the Tigers can keep Liverpool at bay. I wouldn’t be averse to backing Unders actually, based on the price.
Liverpool Win to Nil?
I like Yes in this market because the price is decent (it’ll be available at around [3.0] nearer to kick off), I fancy Liverpool to get the job done and Hull simply do not score enough.
Opta tell us that Hull haven’t kept two clean sheets in a row since October 2013, so it’s pretty much guaranteed that the Reds will score and with Liverpool focused on their top four challenge against a poor side I think it’s worth a back.
Back Liverpool to win at [2.0]Back Under 2.5 Goals at [2.26]
Back Liverpool to win to Nil at [3.0] or better
Luke Moore Premier League P/L