Leicester vs Chelsea
Wednesday 29th April, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1
Four straight wins – the first time since 1966 that they have managed such a feat in the top flight of English football – have moved Leicester City out of the relegation zone and to odds of [7.0] for the drop – having previously been matched at a low of [1.12].
It really has been a remarkable turnaround for Nigel Pearson’s side.
That said, I do think that we’ve all gotten a bit carried away and to have the Foxes priced at [7.0] for relegation when they’re only one point above safety is a bit of an overreaction. Particularly when we consider Sunderland, who are just a point worse off, are priced at odds of [1.65] in the same market.
Yes Leicester have all the momentum, but they themselves have shown how quickly that can change and defeat this Wednesday against the champions elect could stall their impetus. Now is a good time to have a punt on the Foxes to go down, they’re a long way from being out of trouble yet.
Team News: Pearson has hinted that he could field a weakened team this midweek, with Saturday’s game against Newcastle in mind. Jamie Vardy, who has three goals in his last five games, is nursing a foot injury and is unlikely to be risked unless 100% fit.
Recent performances against Manchester United and Arsenal have absolutely epitomised what Jose Mourinho is all about as a manager and why, right now, he stands head and shoulders above his contemporaries in the Premier League. The Special One knows how to get important results in the big games. It may not have been pretty, but it was certainly effective.
The Blues are now unbeaten in 15 games in all competitions and will undoubtedly be crowned champions, possibly as early as this weekend. That should free them up to play some more expansive football this Wednesday evening and I expect a show from Mourinho’s men.
Team News: Oscar will be available for the visitors despite suffering a concussion in the game against Arsenal, while Diego Costa is back to full fitness but the manager has hinted that he may wait a little longer before reintroducing the Brazilian given his injury history.
With Leicester potentially having one eye on upcoming fixtures against fellow relegation strugglers, and Chelsea knowing that if they win here they will have the opportunity to secure the title in front of their home fans at the weekend – and therefore suitably incentivised – I have to conclude that the [1.7] on an away win is good value.
If you agree with me then I’d strongly suggest getting your bets on sooner rather than later, as those odds could crumble if Pearson does name a weakened XI.
Taking things one step further, I also think that the [3.0] available on Chelsea -1 in the Handicap market offers some outstanding value.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Aside from the Capital One Cup final win against Spurs, it’s now 16 games and over three months since Chelsea won a game by more than a single goal. And as much as Mourinho likes to shrug off criticism of his style of play, now that the title is in the bag he’ll want his team to go out and prove that that they aren’t all about grinding out results. This Wednesday evening offers the ideal opportunity.
Take a large slice of the [1.94] on there being more than 2.5 goals in this game. And have a nibble on the [9.4] about Any Other Away Win in the Correct Score market.
I’m sure I won’t be causing many eyebrows to raise when I suggest this next bet, but I’ll also be backing the [2.7] about Eden Hazard to score anytime this Wednesday. He netted in Chelsea’s 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge in the reverse fixture and will be further buoyed by his recent PFA Player of the Year Award.
2points Back Chelsea -1 @ [3.0]2points Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.94]1point Back Eden Hazard to score anytime @ [2.7]
Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L
Staked: 126.0 pts
Returned: 107.45 pts
P/L: -18.55 pts