Opta Big Match Stats: Arsenal and Swansea to save the best for last

Arsenal v Swansea
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Arsenal [1.33], Swansea [12.0], The Draw [6.0]

The two sides have met seven times in the Premier League with three wins apiece and one draw

Though Arsenal have been breached just twice in their most recent seven Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium, the combination of Swansea’s competitive record against the Gunners and their 2014/15 results away to top-half rivals indicates that the visitors will get on the scoresheet. The Welsh club have struck away to all eight top-ten teams that they have visited, conceding in seven of those contests too, and notched twice on their latest two Premier League trips to the Emirates.

Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ [2.06]

21 of the last 22 goals in this fixture in all competitions were scored in the second half

In general, second-half goals are slightly more common than their first-half equivalent, but not to such an extent that 95% of the net-rippling occurs after the interval. This is a truly remarkable statistic and it appears to be growing in strength rather than weakening. At the Liberty Stadium in November, all three goals in Swansea’s 2-1 victory arrived in the final 28 minutes, while the duo’s 2-2 draw in north London last March featured three goals in the closing 18 minutes. Since the start of 2012/13, there have been 19 goals in the pair’s seven clashes, and 14 of those came in the last 20 minutes.

Recommended Bet: Back the second half to have the most goals @ [2.1]

Danny Welbeck has scored three goals in four Premier League games against Swansea

The likelihood is that Welbeck won’t start because Arsene Wenger has selected the same side for four consecutive Premier League matches for the first time in his 19-year reign and the England international hasn’t been a part of it. However, he has at the very least made a cameo in each of the previous 13 encounters that he was available for and the aforementioned trends about the frequency of goals in the 71st minute or later indicate that this is a substitute’s fixture. The forward is an injury doubt, but your stake will be returned if he isn’t involved.

Recommended Bet: Back Welbeck to score @ [2.5]