After narrowly missing out on four winners from four last week, Neil Harvey’s looking to get the full house this time – with Liverpool against Man City his banker of this weekend’s Overs or Unders…
Burnley v Swansea City
Burnley have started to knock in a few goals of late, scoring twice in each of their last three home league games. But don’t be fooled, they didn’t change overnight. Those goals came against three sides at the wrong end of the table – QPR, Palace and West Brom. Swansea are made of sterner stuff and should rise to higher than their current ranking of ninth by the end of the season. The reality is, Burnley are still the Premier League’s joint third lowest scorers at home, scoring on average just one goal per game.
Swansea have been meaner than the Grinch when on their travels. Four of their last five away results were low scoring. And the Swans have been especially prudent against the weaker sides, with their five matches this season away to teams currently in the bottom half of the table having all produced fewer than two and a half goals. That’s a trend that’s begging to be supported and the price available on it happening is simply too healthy to ignore.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.804/5
Manchester United v Sunderland
I like the look of goals here. United have had their problems this season, but at Old Trafford they’ve continued to score plenty. In their last five home games they’ve found the net at least three times in all but one of those matches. So there would seem to be little wrong with their frontline, whatever the pundits might say. If they do have problems, they are most likely at the back – United’s opponents scored in four of those aforementioned five home games.
Sunderland have made a decent fist of their recent away games, without having much luck. They scored twice at Man City and once at Tottenham only to come away from both pointless. Then most recently they netted in a 1-1 draw at Swansea. That suggests to me that Gus Poyet’s side are in good enough goalscoring form to find the net in this game, with new arrival Jermain Defoe the most likely candidate. Both teams scored in this season’s reverse fixture and I expect that could happen once again.
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.875/6
Liverpool v Manchester City
Live on Sky Sports 1
What a great looking game to sit down to Sunday lunch with. Since Christmas, Liverpool have been looking more like the side we loved so much last season – a team that could literally be banked on for goals. I should note that only applies to their home games though. On the road, Liverpool are becoming increasingly frugal. But at Anfield, Brendan Rogers‘ side have started banging in the goals – and conceding them too. The last five matches there have seen the net bulge 20 times, 13 times for the home side and seven against. They also have to keep winning, as they look to climb into an automatic Champions League spot.
The fact that Liverpool continue to concede is extremely encouraging. Especially when their next guests are Manchester City, a team who happen to be the Premier League’s highest scoring travellers. City are also now in a must-win situation every time they play, which invariably raises goal expectation. Recent results show both teams have scored in four of City’s last five away games, a statistic which looks highly likely to continue here given the teams involved and both sides’ need to win.
Back Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.814/5
Arsenal v Everton
Live on Sky Sports 1
Last week’s 2-2 draw with Leicester was the first time in six Premier League outings that Everton had been involved in a high scoring match. And even then, that game was scoreless at the break, only to explode with a frenzy of second half activity. The fact they were playing Leicester, a side desperate to get off the bottom of the table, may have played a big part in that frenzy. Desperate times call for desperate measures. By contrast though, Arsenal look a much more measured outfit and one who can afford to take their time.
The Gunners after all sit third in the division. And with the leaders long out of reach already, their main objective from here will be to hang on to that position. Everton are sure to fear a trip to the Emirates. Arenal have scored at least twice in each of their last five league games there. But Arsene Wenger’s team may have lost some of the wind from their sails following their midweek home loss to Monaco. Everton meanwhile have only scored in two of their last six on the road, but have the motivation and potentially the ability to keep this tight.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.206/5
2014/15 Season P/L