Tottenham v Manchester City
Live on Sky Sports 1
In different circumstances this could have been a crucial match for Spurs. Had they picked up a couple of wins over their past three games they would be right in the mix for a Champions League place. Instead, they’ve only picked up two points from a possible nine and are now cut adrift.
As any Tottenham fan would be able to tell you, this is exactly the sort of circumstance where the team are likely to pull off a win and leave their frustrated support wondering what might have been.
After all, Spurs have often looked at their best this season when facing the Premier League’s top sides. This was even true in the 4-1 defeat to Manchester City at the Etihad, which was a scoreline that had little reflection on the balance of the game.
Mauricio Pochettino’s chances won’t be helped by injuries to his defence, with Ben Davies and Kyle Walker definitely out, but Danny Rose looks set to play should he pass a late fitness test. In midfield Paulinho is available again having missed the Southampton game due to the birth of his child.
Successive home wins for City have seen them move back up the table to second but it is not their form at the Etihad that is in doubt.
It is away from home that their title challenge has collapsed. They have lost the last four Premier League away games, including defeats to Burnley and Crystal Palace and have only won once on their travels in 2015.
Yet if City fans require a reason to be cheerful, it comes in the shape of Sergio Aguero’s renewed form. The Argentine has scored four goals in his last three games and at his best is a player than can win games on his own, as Spurs found out when he scored four against them earlier this season.
Aguero might be in fine form but other key personnel will be missing. Vincent Kompany and Yaya Toure are both out, as are Gael Clichy, Stevan Jovetic and Samir Nasri.
Given City’s poor away form, Tottenham look decent value at [3.75], with the draw at [3.8] and an away win at [2.12].
Aside from City, in the four games that Spurs have played at White Hart Lane against teams in the top five, they have won two, drawn one and lost one. The solitary defeat came very early on in the season against Liverpool, before Pochettino had time to stamp his mark on the side.
Tottenham should avoid defeat but I’d sway towards backing them in the Draw No Bet market at [2.8] or laying City at [2.12]. This is Spurs after all.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Given the poor defensive record of both sides it’s little surprise that under 2.5 goals is priced at [2.56], with overs at [1.63].
In such circumstances we look towards over 3.5 goals at [2.52] and it’s a tempting bet when you consider that six out of the last seven meetings between the sides have seen four or more goals scored.
In terms of likely goalscorers, Harry Kane stands out against City’s dodgy defence at a likely price of [2.9], while Nacer Chadli has scored in two successive games and is worth a punt at [6.0].
Lay Manchester City at [2.12]
Back over 3.5 goals at [2.52]
Back Nacer Chadli to score at [6.0]