Dan Thomas stretched his lead over second-placed Joe Dyer with a winning bet last weekend, while Luke Moore is now right in the mix-up after his fourth winner on the bounce. Mike Norman, meanwhile, is in the need of big winners to get back into it. Find out where their tenners are headed…
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Aston Villa v Swansea at 2.56/4
I’ve mentioned in this column before how sometimes the markets can be slow to react to changes in the way a team is playing and I’m hoping to capitalise once again by backing goals in a Villa game at a tasty price.
Looking at the stats for the season as a whole and this would be an Unders banker but, as he is fond of reminding everyone, Tim Sherwood wants his team to play ‘on the front foot‘.
This change in mentality appears to be working wonders at Villa Park – Opta tell us that the Midlanders have scored more goals in their last two Premier League matches (6) than they managed in the previous 13 (5) – and I’m expecting more entertainment when Swansea visit on Saturday.
The Swans are still adjusting to life without Wilfried Bony but they have netted six in the last four, including two against both Tottenham and Manchester United, and their attacking players will enjoy exploiting the gaps in newly bold Villa’s backline.
Dan Thomas 2014-15 P/L: +£16.45
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.447/5 in Man City v West Brom
Live on BT Sport 1
OK, this is getting really painful now. I’ve managed to turn a £90 profit into a £10 deficit and Luke bloody Moore is on my tail! What has happened to my betting chops?
Worse still I’m going to continue swimming against the tide with an odds-against bet this week. I’ve detailed in my Man City v West Brom preview why I fancy Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.447/5, but let’s quickly run through those points again…
The home side have lost their way in attack this year
City are off-form and were given a 90 minute runaround at the Nou Camp on Wednesday night
Worse still, West Brom are set out to stifle and frustrate
And finally, the away side really struggle to score on the road
Conclusion: The market has overdone the chances of there being Over 2.5 Goals.
Now can I get a winning bet please?
Joe Dyer 2014-15 P/L -£9.50
Back Tottenham -1 v Leicester at 7/5 (Sportsbook)
Leicester are in absolute disarray and have been for some time now. They’ve won just four games all season, are seven points from safety and are all but assured to go down. What’s more, they’ve scored just 24 goals in 29 games.
Spurs, on the other hand, are still (just about) fighting for a top four berth and will be looking to bounce back from a pretty heavy defeat at Old Trafford. They should be motivated to put Leicester, who are effectively a Championship side in all but name, to the sword.
I’m backing Mauricio Pochettino‘s men to do the business with a one-goal handicap to land my fifth Battle winner in a row – they should have absolutely no trouble at all here on Saturday.
Luke Moore 2014-15 P/L: -£28.30
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 4.84/1 in Stoke v Crystal Palace
You have to laugh. Last week I went for 0-0 in Sunderland v Aston Villa but, tongue firmly in cheek, suggested that the game would probably end 4-4. Well I was 50% correct, Villa scoring as many goals on the road in 37 minutes as they had all season.
This week I really fancy goals at the Britannia Stadium. For two sides who have been managed by Tony Pulis in recent years it’s perhaps not surprising that the Under 2.5 Goals option is available to back at just 1.664/6. But personally I think that price is an insult, and it’s a price based purely on reputation rather than how good these two sides are at present.
The Potters have been very reliable at the Britannia Stadium of late, beating the sides you expect them to in winning four of their last five home games. Note: nine goals scored in those four wins.
Crystal Palace have been brilliant under Alan Pardew, especially away from home where they have won five of their last six – note: 14 goals scored in those five wins.
True, there’s every chance that these two sides could cancel each other out, and I guess that’s what the Goals markets are suggesting will happen, but I’d rather take the view that these two in-form sides are playing with plenty of confidence at the moment and could easily provide a fantastic game of football. I need at least four goals to get back into this Betting Battle so fingers crossed.
Mike Norman 2014-15 P/L: -£105.80
A £10 bet is placed on each selection on Betfair’s Exchange. Profits are calculated before commission.
Editors 2014/15 Season P/L
1. Dan Thomas: +£16.45
2. Joe Dyer: -£9.50
3. Luke Moore: -£28.30
4. Mike Norman: -£105.80