Inter Milan v Wolfsburg: Caution the watchword as Wolves look to seal the deal

Wolfsburg are in control of this tie after a 3-1 first-leg win, but Kevin Hatchard expects the Germans to tread carefully in Milan…

Inter Milan v Wolfsburg
Thursday, 20:05
Live on ITV 4

The tournament favourites Wolfsburg continue to impress, and they are in command of this tie after a 3-1 victory over the Nerazzurri in Germany last week.

The irrepressible Kevin De Bruyne once again played a starring role last week, as he scored twice and set up the other goal. The Belgian has scored five goals and managed four assists in the Europa League, and has contributed directly to 25 goals this season in the Bundesliga.

It’s no wonder KDB is attracting the attention of PSG, and it wouldn’t be OTT to say he’s the Bundesliga’s hottest property at present (editor: that’s your yearly allowance of three-letter acroynms up Kev).

Inter were poor last week, but it’s also worth bearing in mind that they were undermined by the hapless performance of back-up keeper Juan Pablo Carrizo, who was at least partially fault for all three goals. Roberto Mancini‘s decision to omit Samir Handanovic at the Volkswagen Arena may have dashed his side’s Europa League hopes.

The Italian giants are now in a very precarious position. Wolfsburg are one of the most dangerous counter-attacking sides in Europe, so Inter dare not risk too much too soon.

From the Wolfsburg point of view, they took a 2-0 lead to Sporting Lisbon in the last 32, and played conservatively in a goalless draw which wrapped up the tie. With defensive lynchpin Naldo suspended and his likely replacement Timm Klose short of match practice, Wolfsburg coach Dieter Hecking won’t want to expose the heart of his defence by playing too openly.

The market clearly expects goals, with Over 2.5 Goals trading at 1.695/7 and Yes in the Both Teams to Score market available at 1.574/7.

I’m not so sure – a two-goal lead is an awkward one to defend, and both teams are aware that one big slip-up could be costly. Five of Inter’s last six home games have featured fewer than three goals, while Wolfsburg have kept clean sheets in three of their last four Europa League outings.

I tipped overs between these two last week, but I’m going in the opposite direction this time.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.3611/8

2014/15 Europa League P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 71

Points Returned: 75.78

P/L: +4.78 points