There are always lots of goals…
Bayern Munich have done more than any other Champions League heavyweight to destroy the image of semi-final double headers as careful, plodding and uneventful affairs. All four of their prior final-four second legs this decade soared over 2.5 goals, with last season’s delivering four.
The same is true when Bayern collide with Barcelona: caution isn’t a consideration. Each of their last three continental clashes served up at least three goals, as have four of their overall five since 2009.
The trend says: Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.69]
…yet a surprising number of clean sheets
Usually, a team with a high over-2.5-goals strike rate possesses it as a result of being in plenty of contests in which both they and their opponents score. That isn’t the case with Bayern’s semi-final second legs though: despite all four going over, three involved the victors keeping a clean sheet.
Instead, dominant 3-0 or 4-0 triumphs are in vogue, and the same is true when Bayern and Barcelona match their expensively-assembled squads up, with four of their past five Champions League meetings being won either 3-0 or 4-0.
The trend says: Back both teams to score? No @ [2.64]
First-leg success is followed up
In three of Bayern’s last four Champions League semi-finals, the first-leg winners confirmed passage to the final by doing it all over again on their travels in the return tie.
In 2009/10, Jupp Heynckes’ men topped up a 1-0 aggregate advantage over Lyon with a 3-0 romp in France. In 2012/13, they refused to be sated by a 4-0 first-leg thrashing of Barcelona, beating them 3-0 at the Camp Nou. The reverse was in effect last term, when a 1-0 Bernabeu loss to Real Madrid was followed by a 4-0 home humbling, in which they trailed 3-0 as early as the 34th minute.
The sole exception to this trend was in 2011/12 when Bayern claimed the initial game against Real 2-1 then fell by the same scoreline in Spain. However, even then they eventually progressed on penalties.
The trend says: Back Barcelona to win @ [2.68]