Bet 1: Sao Paulo (HOME) @ 1.85 (17/20) – Available on Betfair Live Video at 02:00 BST
This is an all Brazil Copa Libertadores last 16 tie and I expect the hosts to take a lead into the second leg.
It’s been an interesting couple of months for Sao Paulo as after a couple of dodgy results early on, they made it through their group as runners up. Muricy Ramalho has stepped down as manager due to health concerns but interim, Milton Cruz, has done a decent job in his short spell to date.
Opponents, Cruzeiro, are the current champions of Brazil having won the Campeonato for the second consecutive year last season, but they have been in and out this campaign. They struggled through an easy group – albeit as winners – but they dropped five points in two games against Huracan and that’s not good form.
It should be a cracking atmosphere inside Morumbi tonight and I think the stars of Sao Paulo are value to get their noses in front.
Bet 2: Corinthians (AWAY) @ 2.1 (11/10) – Available on Betfair Live Video at 23:45 BST
Another Copa Libertadores match now as Corinthians travel to Paraguay to take on Guarani and they should have enough class to get a win.
Before the start of this year, Guarani, had a dismal record in this competition having lost nearly all of their games in it since 2004. It’s been a different story this year however as they lost just one of six in their group and qualified as runners up behind, Racing Club.
It has to be noted though that they had a kind draw and even with home advantage tonight, it’s difficult to envisage Fernando Jubero‘s men laying a glove on the visitors. That’s mainly because, Corinthians, are such a strong team at the moment.
Tite has returned to the club that he enjoyed a huge amount of success with a few years ago and they breezed through their group despite being drawn against the mighty, Sao Paulo, and defending champions, San Lorenzo.
They picked up two victories on the road and the only one they lost came at a time when their place in the last 16 was already secured.
Bet 3: Brechin v Alloa (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.66 (4/6)
To slightly less glamorous stuff now as this week’s goal-fest comes from Scotland as Brechin take on Alloa in the Championship/League One Play-offs.
Brechin finished fourth in League One, earning themselves a shot at promotion. In 36 fixtures to date, they have netted 58 goals and conceded 46, giving their matches an average of 2.89 goals each time. A total of 20 would have seen over 2.5 backers collect and their last five home scorelines have been – 2-3, 2-2, 2-1, 3-0 and 1-3.
It hasn’t been such a successful campaign for Alloa as they are fighting to avoid relegation having finished ninth in the Championship. Their goal stats don’t make quite as good reading but with 34 in the ‘For’ column and 56 in the ‘Against’, their matches are still averaging dead on 2.5 goals per 90 minutes, with almost half finishing with three or more.
This is the first leg of two but I believe that is factored into the price and I can certainly see both teams scoring at an absolute minimum.
Bet 4: Barcelona v Bayern Munich (Under 2.5 goals) @ 2.05 (21/20) – Live on Sky Sports 1 at 19:45 BST
We save the best for last and despite all the attacking talent that will be on display, I quite like the look of under 2.5 goals at the Nou Camp when Barcelona take on Bayern Munich.
Pep Guardiola returns to his beloved Barcelona for the first time and I expect him to have a game plan. Given the injuries he has to the likes of Arjen Robben, his focus will likely to just stay in the tie before the second leg in Germany.
Barcelona will obviously just play in their usual way and with 14 goals scored over their two previous outings, they couldn’t really be in better form. It is worth noting though that their two home legs in the last 16 and quarter-finals both finished with two goals or fewer being scored and Bayern had a 0-0 at Shakhtar in the first leg of their last 16 tie.
Back Sao Paulo @ 1.85 (17/20)
Back Corinthians @ 2.1 (11/10)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Brechin v Alloa @ 1.66 (4/6)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Barcelona v Bayern Munich @ 2.05 (21/20)
The Multiple pays approximately 13.22 (12/1)
Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.
2015 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 17 pts
P/L: + 15.16pts
(2014 P/L: + 48.57pts)
(2013 P/L: – 15.49 pts)