Bet 1: Real Madrid (HOME) @ 1.65 (13/20) – Live on Sky Sports 1 at 19:45 BST
Following Barcelona’s passage into the Champions League Final last night, Real Madrid will be even more desperate to get there and join them now. They trail Juventus by two goals to one going into this evening’s second leg at the Bernabeu but they have that all-important away goal.
The hosts haven’t quite been firing on all cylinders in the last couple of months and it’s no secret that they have been missing the presence of Luka Modric in midfield. Gareth Bale has come in for plenty of criticism but he is still a fine player and with Ronaldo and James Rodriguez around him, that makes for a pretty devastating attacking line up.
Juventus will go to Madrid to park the bus, I have no doubt about that. I just can’t see them keeping a clean sheet though and their overall record away from Turin in this competition isn’t overly fantastic as they’ve already been beaten at Atletico Madrid and Olympiakos this season.
Bet 2: Gremio (AWAY) @ 1.83 (5/6) – Available on Betfair Live Video at 23:30 BST
This should be a relatively straightforward task for Gremio in the Copa do Brasil and while this is the first leg of two, I still think they’ll get their noses in front ahead of the return in front of their own fans.
Luiz Felipe Scolari’s side opened up their league campaign with an entertaining 3-3 draw with Ponte Preta at the weekend but that must be considered a disappointing result given that they led 2-0 and then 3-2 going into injury time. Their form in the State Championships was good though – beaten by Internacional in the final – and it’s six wins from their last nine on the road.
Opponents, CRB, began their league season with a win over Bragantino but they ply their trade at a level below Gremio and they were only promoted to that division this year. Even though they will have a 2-1 success over Sao Paulo in this competition fresh in their minds, they fell behind that day and only really got back into the game once the visitors had been reduced to 10.
Bet 3: Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.3 (13/10) – Available on Betfair Live Video at 23:30 BST
It’s been a difficult season for Cruzeiro as Brazil’s best side of the last two years lost their opening league game on Sunday – a 1-0 home loss to Corinthians – and they are on the verge of a Copa Libertadores exit having been beaten 1-0 at Sao Paulo in the opening leg of this tie.
Sao Paulo on the other hand are enjoying themselves this term as not only did they win their State Championship, they won in the league at the weekend and have already racked up five Libertadores victories.
It’s the goals we’re focusing on here though and I think over 2.5 is great value. The hosts have to go for it and while the visitors don’t, an away goal will give Cruzeiro a mountain to climb. It’s also worth noting that three of Cruzeiro’s last five at home have gone over 2.5, as have four of Sao Paulo’s last half dozen away.
Bet 4: Forfar v Alloa (Under 2.5 goals) @ 2.15 (23/20)
This is the first leg of the play-off final between Forfar and Alloa, where the winner will be playing in the Scottish Championship next season and the loser in League One.
Hosts, Forfar, are the team who are chasing promotion and they come into this fixture in excellent form. It’s five clean sheets from their last six at home and while they have been scoring goals themselves, with the pressure really on, I expect them to tighten up somewhat.
Alloa are looking to avoid the drop and they scraped through the semi-finals with a 2-1 aggregate win over Brechin. Both legs finished with two goals or fewer being scored and I expect more of the same in an even tenser affair.
Back Real Madrid @ 1.65 (13/20)
Back Gremio @ 1.83 (5/6)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo @ 2.3 (13/10)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Forfar v Alloa @ 2.15 (23/20)
The Multiple pays approximately 14.93 (14/1)
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2015 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 18 pts
P/L: + 14.16pts
(2014 P/L: + 48.57pts)
(2013 P/L: – 15.49 pts)