Bet 1: Monaco (HOME) @ 3.4 (12/5) – Live on Sky Sports 5 at 19:45 BST
Betting is all about value and while Monaco are up against it in the Champions League, I can’t leave them out of this multiple at the current odds.
Leonardo Jardim’s side managed to escape Turin with a 1-0 defeat and they play the second leg on a ground that they’ve only been beaten once on since September. Even then the loss came in a game they could afford to lose and while I’m not 100% confident that they’ll win tonight, I can’t see them being beaten.
Opponents, Juventus, have the luxury of being able to lose this match by a single goal and still progress as long as they score. The Old Lady are finally living up to their potential in the Champions League but the draw has been relatively kind to them this year and it was only six months ago that Massimiliano Allegri’s men were losing 1-0 at Olympiakos.
Bet 2: Birmingham (AWAY) @ 3.75 (11/4)
Another match now where the selection is based on value and not my certainty of them winning.
Reading had their hearts broken at Wembley on Saturday evening and they also had to play 120 minutes to compound the issue. It’s hard to imagine the players being anywhere near 100% mentally or physically and they’ve won just one of their last 10 Championship fixtures anyway.
Birmingham aren’t in much better form either but it’s four wins in 10 for them and their last two defeats came at Bournemouth and Watford. Those can easily be forgiven and despite no win in nine on the road, The Blues notched up four victories away from St Andrew’s before the turn of the year.
Bet 3: Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.1 (11/10) – Live on Sky Sports 1 at 19:45 BST
Back to the Champions League now and at the risk of boring you, this pick is once again based on value – although I am pretty confident that it will land regardless.
It’s very rare that a match involving Real Madrid will see over 2.5 goals priced up as odds-against, but that’s exactly what we have here. The first leg may have finished 0-0 at the Calderon but this will be a completely different encounter entirely and as soon as the opening goal is scored, the other team will have to chase the game.
The hosts are without Bale and Benzema but Jese Rodriguez and Javier Hernandez are good players in their own right and they still have the firepower of Ronaldo and James Rodriguez.
A total of 17 of Real’s 24 home games this term have seen three goals or more being scored and while Atletico’s stats on the road don’t make quite as good reading, around 50% of their away fixtures have gone over 2.5.
Bet 4: Dundee v Celtic (Under 2.5 goals) @ 2.2 (6/5)
We conclude in Scotland and the final selection is once again more to do with the odds than anything else (why change now?).
It’s pretty obvious what Dundee’s New Year Resolution was as after winning just five of their first 18 league games of the season, they’ve gone on to record a further six from 13 attempts in 2015. They’ve only been beaten twice and that has seen them move into the top half of the division.
The key to their success has been at the back as Paul Hartley’s side haven’t conceded more than one goal in any of their last 10 outings and that has led to eight of them rewarding under 2.5 backers.
Celtic are set to clinch yet another League title as they are five points clear of Aberdeen with a game in hand. As far as the goals go, half a dozen of their last nine away from Celtic Park have finished with two or fewer being scored and they kept six clean sheets during that period.
Back Monaco @ 3.4 (12/5)
Back Birmingham @ 3.75 (11/4)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid @ 2.1 (11/10)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Dundee v Celtic @ 2.2 (6/5)
The Multiple pays approximately 58.91 (58/1)
Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.
2015 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 15 pts
P/L: + 17.16pts
(2014 P/L: + 48.57pts)
(2013 P/L: – 15.49 pts)