Against All Odds: Second string to be first for goals

Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Saturday May 2, 17:30 BST
Live on BT Sport 2

The hosts come into this fixture knowing that they can’t finish any lower than fourth which means they will at least be in the Champions League qualifiers next season. They will be desperate to go one better though and move ahead of Borussia M’gladbach into third and secure a passage straight into the group phase. Roger Schmidt’s side actually go to M’gladbach next week but they already trail them by two points, so if they fail to win today, a victory at Borussia-Park could prove futile.

Opponents, Bayern Munich, have already wrapped up the title and their focus now is solely on their Champions League semi-final with Barcelona. The first leg at the Nou Camp is this coming Wednesday and you can bet a pound to a penny that Pep Guardiola will be fielding a weakened XI at the BayArena.

My angle on this match is goals though and even with the visitors having their star players missing, I still fancy plenty of them. The stats on offer are good anyway – Leverkusen’s matches are averaging 2.97 goals each time this year, with half of them going over 2.5. That fraction increases if you narrow it down to home results only and their last five scorelines in front of their own fans read – 4-5, 1-0, 4-0, 4-0 and 4-0.

Munich’s stats make similar reading as their fixtures have an average of exactly three goals per 90 minutes, with 16 of their 30 rewarding under 2.5 goal layers. Half a dozen of their last nine on the road have followed suit and even with the trio of Lewandowski, Robben and Ribery missing out, the fringe players at this club are still fine players and they will be keen to take one of the few opportunities they get.

It’s a rare occurrence to have a Bayern Munich match with under 2.5 goals at odds-on, but that’s what we have here and I don’t agree. That’s why, with under 2.5 trading at around the [1.87] mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Leverkusen v Bayern Munich @ [1.87]

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 120 pts
Returned: 93.40 pts
P/L: – 26.60 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)