Thrilling finale to relegation dogfight
Three teams go into the final weekend of Ligue 1 action battling to avoid relegation and all three face opponents that have nothing to play for, greatly increasing their chances of winning on Friday night.
Dijon (19th), Caen (18th) and Amiens (17th) are looking to avoid joining already-relegated Guingamp in the bottom two (19th and 20th), while 18th place in France’s top flight means a playoff against a representative from Ligue 2. Amiens are two points clear of trouble (35 points), while Caen (33 points) occupy the playoff position and Dijon (31 points) are relying on the two teams directly above them to slip-up in order to avoid the drop
The three teams in question have the advantage of playing at home: Amiens host relegated Guingamp, while Caen host Bordeaux and Dijon host Toulouse. Sitting 20th, 14th and 15th respectively in the Ligue 1 table, Guingamp, Bordeaux and Toulouse have endured disappointing seasons. All three have nothing tangible to play for this weekend so hard to see how they can stop hosts battling for their lives claiming victories.
Unsurprisingly the odds reflect the fact that there’s a massive difference in motivation at play in each of these fixtures: Dijon are [1.56] to win, with Caen [1.56] and Amiens [1.5]. Individually those prices may be too short to attract much attention but a Sportsbook treble on all three relegation-threatened sides picking up three points pays out at around [2.9].
Market overestimating likelihood of final day goal fest
One of the most-repeated betting theories towards the end of the season is that the final day often produces a higher-than-average number of goals. The claim is essentially based on the supposition that teams with nothing to play for lose concentration, make mistakes and/or go out simply to enjoy themselves, meaning tactics go out of the window and matches resemble the sort of free-for-all you’re more likely to see in a Sunday morning amateur game.
Between 10 and 15 years ago it was certainly the case that Ligue 1 – which has always ranked as one of Europe’s lower-scoring major leagues – would see a spike in the number of goals during the final few matchdays. The market has picked up on this trend in recent seasons, however, to the degree that seven of the 10 fixtures taking place this weekend are odds-on to have Over 2.5 Goals.
So has the value now flipped over to the other side, making Unders the smart selection? Well, arguably, yes. Looking at the past 10 final days of the season – 2008-09 to 2017-18 inclusive – 54 out of 100 (54%) matches have had Over 2.5 Goals. During the past five seasons, this figure has increased to 58% (29 out of 50), but this still suggests that the market is perhaps overestimating the chances of games having Over 2.5 Goals this weekend.
No single final matchday in the past 10 years has had fewer than four of the 10 matches featuring Over 2.5 Goals, but no single matchday has had more than seven out of 10 games featuring Over 2.5 Goals, either.
Looking at the prices available on Over 2.5 Goals across the 10 games scheduled this weekend, odds range from as short as [1.38] on the Nimes vs Lyon fixture to [2.04] on the Amiens vs Guingamp and Caen vs Bordeaux games. Given the percentages of 54% and 58% referred to earlier, backing Unders across the board has slightly more appeal than backing Overs across the board.
Source: BetFair French
