League Two Tips: Hats off to Jackett’s revolution

Pools in the mood to sink injury-hit Latics

Oldham 3.211/5 v Hartlepool 2.56/4; the draw 3.412/5

The inconsistency inherent in League Two means that Hartlepool sit fifth, having lost three times – more than any other team in the top half of the table – because they have won their four other games.

Dave Challinor’s side have taken all those four victories at home. Facing a trip to Oldham gives them every chance of breaking their away duck (Opta say they have lost 12 of their past 14 away), since rising back into the Football League this summer. That’s because the Latics have just three points, all collected in one match at nervous newbies Sutton a few weeks ago.

The flaw in the enthusiasm could come in the fact that Pools have only notched one goal in away matches this season – and that Tyler Burey, on loan from Millwall, is injured.

However, they seem to cope. Don’t tell Jamie Sterry that Hartlepool lack attacking options. The defender strode into the box to strike the winner against Bristol Rovers. Challinor this week extended his scoring options by signing free agents Jordan Cook, 31, and Mike Fondop, 27, who have both been training with the team already.

The visitors should expect more from Will Goodwin, on loan from Stoke, up front. They need to up the shots on target rate from four at Sutton on Tuesday, when David Ferguson and Olufela Olomola had chances.

Over at Oldham, playmaker Dylan Bahamboula has been shortlist for a 2020 award in the North West. He’d swap that for a few wins. He’s already scored a couple of times this season, but boss Keith Curle is aware that “we’re down and everyone is kicking us”. Fate, included.

Winger Nicky Adams was the latest to suffer injury, withdrawn at half-time with injury, when the Latics boss was filling the bench with teenagers and said one of the substitutes was not fit to come on. He just didn’t want to look short, with keeper Danny Rogers and summer signings Jordan Clarke, Sam Hart, Harrison McGahey, Ouss Cisse, Jamie Hopcutt and Alan Sheehan already out. A meeting with the strength and conditioning team has ensued.

Whether it is down to training practices or a small squad juggling a heavy workload, the sense of a club in trouble – with protest about ownership ongoing – prevails. The hosts have not scored in four of their seven matches this season, two of those four coming at Boundary Park.

Orient on the rise under new boss

Bristol Rovers 2.915/8 v Leyton Orient 2.6413/8; the draw 3.55/2

Another team not to have won away yet, but still riding high in the division (fourth) are Leyton Orient, under the summer’s new boss Kenny Jackett. They have drawn their away games, at Salford, Carlisle and Newport.

In their particular favour at the Memorial Ground this weekend, however, is the fact they have reaped 13 goals in seven games (not scoring in one at all). That’s one short of being semi-assured of two goals per game. Bristol Rovers, meanwhile, have netted just five times in seven matches this season.

Jackett’s joy has come from Harry Smith‘s five strikes already having been signed from Northampton in the summer, while fellow newcomers Aaran Drinan and Theo Archibald, a winger supplying chances, have also chipped in with goals.

They seem to leave clean sheets for home matches (only Harrogate have scored at Brisbane Road, taking away a 2-0 win). Meanwhile Joey Barton is still trying to steer success out of his Pirates.

Victories are few and far between. Literally. Once every three games. Over sorry Oldham and hapless travellers Crawley. Luke Thomas tweeted he was “ready” on Sunday night, having been ordered to do a mini pre-season with the fitness team. Fans will be desperate for the 22-year-old Barnsley loanee to translate the pre-season promise they saw into attacking verve in the Football League. The manager needs a fillip, with fans cranking up the pressure on him.

It’s very ‘media’ to pin hopes on one player as a solution. Five different players have scored the five goals this season. One of them needs to spearhead a consistent attack. And even if Rovers do score, it’s quite possible that Orient will outscore them. Afterall, Opta say they have scored in their last 20 league games against Bristol Rovers!

Go for goals with Valiants and Harrogate

Port Vale 2.68/5 v Harrogate 3.39/4; the draw 3.613/5

The angle on this match isn’t so much whether Port Vale can burst flying Harrogate’s bubble as about whether they can aid and abet them in a goals-based bet.

The visitors have struck 13 times and conceded seven in their six, only failing to score more than once in a 1-1 home draw with Exeter. That’s an average just above a 2-1 scoreline, which in itself makes over 2.5 goals overpriced at 2.35/4. It seems likely they will break their duck against Oldham, one of three sides they have faced in the Football League against whom they have not scored, say Opta.

The reason for the layers’ caution in making under 2.5 goals favourite of the two could be the Valiants’ lateness to the goals party: only in the past three games have they notched two per game, having scored just once (and conceded just twice) in the four games before then. In their past three games, they have scored six and conceded four.

Jamie Proctor has very much come to life for Darrell Clarke‘s side, netting three in two games as Port Vale’s season stutters into a start. Ben Garrity, another summer signing, also bagged two in the win at Swindon last weekend.

Very little has impeded Simon Weaver’s second placed Sulphurites this season. Trust cup kings Newport to spoil the party last Friday by holding them to a second draw, eh? They had to level twice, Luke Armstrong adding to his earlier assist of Jack Muldoon‘s first by netting the second equaliser before half time. Both have scored in three of the past four matches. Alex Pattison has also netted three this season, from central midfield.

Scoring more goals than you let in is all very Kevin Keegan, but I am sure – like one media commentator suggests – Weaver thinks Harrogate need to tighten up at the back. For now, however, a goals-based bet seems a decent one.

Recovered Grecians should be too strong for U’s

Exeter 2.47/5 v Sutton 3.613/5; the draw 3.412/5

I’ll regret this if my other possibility – Crawley to draw at Colchester – comes off. It’s a risk backing Exeter who draw 0-0 one week and spank Scunthorpe 4-0 the next. But then it was about time the Grecians got going.

Just a few weeks ago, with Covid affecting them, they were barely able to fill their bench. Selection is now a headache. They are leaving players such as Padraig Amond there without coming on.

Captain Matt Jay believes Jevani Brown and Sam Nombe are turning into “marquee signings”. Boss Matt Taylor recognises that neither forward has actually scored yet (Brown has five assists). He believes, however, that when 22-year-old Nombe starts his account there will be no stopping the former MK Dons player.

Sutton have won their past two home games, propelling them into mid-table. Before that, the games they lost were not by much and they have also drawn twice, at pre-season favourites Salford and Scunthorpe. They will be cautious, perhaps, on the road, having scored two goals and taken two points on their travels.

Enzio Boldewijn, a supplier for the U’s like Brown is for Exeter, and Richie Bennett might have something to say about a prediction that suggests the hosts should win.